High Gas Prices Are Pinching Restaurant Sales—But Chains Are Splitting Winners and Losers

From Domino’s to Applebee’s, several restaurant companies said sales softened in March as fuel costs climbed, while others reported steadier or improving trends—illustrating how macro pressure hits value-oriented diners first but does not land evenly across brands, according to CNBC.

Fuel, Sentiment, and Trade-Down

CNBC ties the backdrop to geopolitical stress—including the U.S. conflict with Iran—and an average national gas price above $4.50 per gallon, alongside weak consumer sentiment. A Numerator survey of drivers cited in the piece found 43% said they had cut back on dining out and takeout since gas prices began rising.

John Peyton, CEO of Dine Brands (Applebee’s and IHOP), told CNBC that March and April were softer than January and February for the chain’s value-focused guest, who stayed home more or chose lower-cost options—attributed to gas prices and the broader economy. Peyton noted that when gas crosses about $3.50, that cohort feels it.

Industry Traffic

Black Box Intelligence data in the article showed restaurant traffic down 2.3% in March versus the year-earlier period.

Not Every Chain Felt the Same Pinch

• Chipotle: Posted unexpected same-store sales growth for Q1; CFO Adam Rymer said on a late-April call that March softened around the start of the Iran conflict but trends later accelerated.
• Shake Shack: CEO Rob Lynch said Q1 sales were relatively consistent, with only slight late-March softening.
• Bloomin’ Brands (Outback), Wendy’s, and Sweetgreen: Reported sequential March improvement versus earlier in the quarter, partly credited to easing winter storms—yet all still saw traffic shrink in the first quarter.

How Leaders Are Responding

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said elevated gas prices disproportionately hit lower-income consumers already strained by rent and groceries. McDonald’s reported about 3.7% same-store sales growth in Q1, with a “barbell” strategy: value for budget shoppers and full-price promos for higher earners.

Some executives frame stress as share-shift opportunity. Brinker International (Chili’s) CEO Kevin Hochman said market share accelerated even as casual dining broadly slowed—tracing the shift to geopolitical events and follow-on gas prices. For several days in late April, Chili’s saw trade-down behaviors (fewer drinks, skipping appetizers/desserts), but Hochman expressed confidence in Chili’s value positioning: “I think the strong players are going to get stronger.”

Restaurant Brands International CEO Josh Kobza highlighted dispersion in QSR outcomes rather than a uniform macro deceleration, citing Burger King U.S. same-store sales up 5.8% in the quarter—ahead of McDonald’s and Wendy’s in that comparison—while stressing execution as a bigger driver than macro swings alone.

Promotions: Applebee’s Example

To court budget guests, Applebee’s is accelerating its All-You-Can-Eat offer: starting Monday (per the article’s timing), diners could get unlimited shrimp, boneless wings, riblets, and fries for $15.99.

Bottom Line

Higher pump prices are a clear headwind for discretionary meals, especially among lower-income households, and March industry traffic data reflects that. The earnings season takeaway in CNBC’s roundup is heterogeneity: weather, brand strength, value menus, and operational execution are separating chains that hold comps from those that see guests stay home.

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