Americans are feeling more positive about the US economy than they have in the past seven years.
A majority expect economic growth and the stock market to rise in 2025.
41% also believe interest rates will fall, surpassing the 35% who predict an increase.
However, opinions on unemployment are split.
While 38% expect joblessness to rise, an equal number believe it will decline.
Another 21% think the rate will remain steady, which could be seen as a positive sign given the current low unemployment levels.
Inflation remains a concern for many, with 52% anticipating a rise. Yet, this number has significantly dropped compared to recent years, indicating growing confidence in economic stability.
A Shift in Economic Expectations
Gallup has tracked Americans’ economic predictions for years, surveying the public regularly since 2001.
The latest data, collected from January 2-15, shows that Americans are more positive about economic indicators than they were in 2019, during the early years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Key factors influencing these views include:
- The post-pandemic economic recovery
- Strong stock market performance
- Persistent low unemployment
- Federal Reserve interest rate policies
The stock market outlook is the most optimistic Gallup has ever recorded.
Meanwhile, the percentage of people expecting inflation, unemployment, and interest rates to worsen is among the lowest.
Hiring? Post jobs for free with WhatJobs
Republicans Leading the Optimism
Political affiliation plays a significant role in shaping economic outlooks:
- Republicans: Large majorities believe the economy will improve under a Republican administration.
- 75% expect economic growth and stock market gains.
- 60% foresee inflation and interest rates falling.
- 57% predict lower unemployment.
- Independents: More moderate in their views, though still positive.
- 60% anticipate stock market growth.
- More expect inflation to worsen than improve.
- Divided on interest rates and unemployment trends.
- Democrats: Less optimistic, with mixed expectations.
- 51% expect stock market gains.
- Only 20% believe economic growth will improve.
- 75% anticipate inflation to rise, likely due to concerns over new tariffs.
- Majority expect unemployment to increase.
Changing Views Over Time
Compared to January 2023, when the question was last asked, Republicans and independents have grown more optimistic about economic improvements.
Democrats, however, have become more pessimistic, particularly regarding economic growth, inflation, and unemployment.
Republicans’ expectations for economic growth have surged by 59 percentage points, while their belief that inflation will decline has dropped by 49 points.
Meanwhile, Democrats’ confidence in economic growth improving has fallen by 32 points, the biggest shift among their group.
Need Career Advice? Get employment skills advice at all levels of your career
Looking Ahead: What This Means for 2025
With Americans showing increasing confidence in the economy, especially in stock market performance and economic growth, the coming months will be critical.
The optimism largely stems from expectations tied to political leadership, but overall economic trends—such as inflation, job stability, and Federal Reserve decisions—will ultimately shape the reality.
As 2025 unfolds, will these predictions hold? Or will unexpected economic challenges shift public sentiment once again?
