The U.S. job market is still expanding, but the pace of growth is slowing sharply, raising new concerns about long-term employment opportunities and worker security. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest 10-year projections this week, forecasting just 5.2 million new jobs by 2034 — a far cry from the robust gains of the past decade.
At the same time, automation, artificial intelligence, and shifting workplace dynamics are reshaping which jobs survive, which industries thrive, and how secure any position really is.
Slowing Growth: A Decade of Modest Gains Ahead
According to the BLS, the U.S. workforce will expand to 175.2 million jobs by 2034, a 3.1% increase over the next decade. For perspective, from 2014 to 2024, jobs grew by more than 13%.
This stark slowdown underscores the challenges facing younger generations entering the workforce. While overall employment is still projected to climb, the composition of the labor market is changing rapidly.
Industries Facing Decline
- Office and administrative support roles will continue shrinking as software takes over tasks like scheduling, bookkeeping, and data entry.
- Sales jobs are expected to erode as e-commerce expands and automated customer support replaces in-person interactions.
- Production work in factories will be increasingly performed by robots and AI-driven machinery.
These categories together account for millions of American jobs today. Their decline represents not only lost opportunities but also the need for large-scale worker retraining.
“These estimates are conservative,” one labor analyst said. “If AI continues advancing at its current pace, the hit to routine jobs could be even bigger by 2034.”
Healthcare: The Exception to the Rule
While many traditional jobs vanish, healthcare remains a rare bright spot. The aging of the baby boomer generation — roughly 73 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 — guarantees sustained demand.
The BLS projects:
- 8.4% overall growth in healthcare employment by 2034.
- 21% growth in services for elderly and disabled Americans, adding more than half a million jobs.
Roles expected to surge include:
- Nurse practitioners
- Physician assistants
- Physical therapy assistants
“The one sector we can count on is healthcare,” explained a staffing executive. “Boomers aren’t getting younger, and the need for medical care will only increase.”
Distrust in the Data: The BLS Revision Problem
The BLS report comes amid growing controversy over its credibility. In recent months, the agency revised down its earlier job creation figures for May and June by 258,000 jobs, fueling criticism that it routinely overstates gains before quietly lowering them later.
A former BLS commissioner defended the practice, calling revisions “a feature, not a bug,” since preliminary estimates provide timely updates while fuller data is still being collected. But employers and workers remain skeptical.
“Who cares if it’s timely if it’s inaccurate? Do better, government. Do better, BLS,” one small business owner argued.
The perception of unreliability is especially damaging at a time when workers are already grappling with uncertainty about their futures.
The End of Job Security?
That uncertainty is reflected in new polling from Express Employment, which found:
- 73% of workers believe no job is fully secure, no matter how well they perform.
- 71% say job security is becoming a thing of the past.
This sentiment mirrors the lived experiences of millions of Americans. Layoffs at large corporations often come with little warning, and even high performers are not immune when budgets tighten.
Historically, the concept of a “job for life” was more myth than reality. But in the modern economy — characterized by quarterly earnings pressure, global supply chains, and rapid technological change — even the illusion of stability is disappearing.
Offer Stability in Uncertain Times
With most workers doubting long-term job security, employers who provide clear opportunities stand out. Post your job on WhatJobs and connect with talent seeking stability.
Post a Job Now →A Mobile Workforce: Twelve Jobs in a Lifetime
The Express survey also found that the average American changes jobs 12 times over the course of a career. The top reason for switching: seeking higher pay.
While the number may sound high, career experts say it aligns with modern employment patterns. Workers are less likely to stay with a single employer for decades, and more likely to chase new opportunities, benefits, or work-life balance across multiple organizations.
For younger generations, job hopping has become not only accepted but often encouraged as a path to faster salary growth.
Case Studies: The Impact on Workers
- Retail Employees: Big-box stores are automating checkout lines and cutting cashier positions, forcing workers to retrain for logistics or customer support roles.
- Call Center Staff: AI chatbots are increasingly handling routine inquiries, reducing the need for large call centers while creating new roles in system management and escalation handling.
- Factory Workers: Robotics in manufacturing plants are displacing line jobs but creating opportunities in machine maintenance, quality control, and programming.
The trend is clear: jobs are not disappearing entirely, but the skill sets required are shifting rapidly.
Lessons from the Healthcare Sector
Healthcare illustrates how job growth often reflects demographic realities. As Americans live longer, the demand for caregivers and medical staff grows regardless of technological advances.
However, even in healthcare, technology is altering the nature of work. AI is now helping radiologists detect tumors, supporting surgeons in the operating room, and enabling nurses to track patient vitals more efficiently. The challenge is balancing innovation with the human touch that patients still demand.
What Workers Can Do
Experts recommend several strategies for navigating the uncertain future:
- Embrace Lifelong Learning: Skills in data analysis, AI literacy, and digital tools are increasingly valuable. Online courses and certificate programs make retraining more accessible.
- Diversify Experience: Workers with cross-functional skills — blending technical know-how with communication or management abilities — are more resilient.
- Monitor Industry Trends: Understanding where your sector is headed can help you pivot before layoffs happen.
- Build a Financial Cushion: With instability on the rise, savings can provide breathing room if sudden job loss occurs.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. labor market is entering a new era. Growth continues, but at a crawl compared to past decades. Automation and AI are hollowing out routine jobs while creating opportunities in healthcare and other specialized fields.
At the same time, trust in government data is wavering, and workers themselves are less confident than ever that their jobs will last. For many, the future of work will mean constant adaptation — and a willingness to reinvent careers more than once.
FAQs
1. Which jobs are projected to decline the most?
Office support, sales, and production jobs are expected to shrink as automation replaces routine tasks.
2. Which industries will grow the fastest?
Healthcare, particularly services for elderly and disabled Americans, with strong demand for nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and PT assistants.
3. Why do BLS job numbers get revised so often?
Initial reports rely on incomplete employer surveys. Revisions reflect fuller data, but critics argue the process misleads the public.
4. How many jobs will the average American have in a lifetime?
Roughly 12, often driven by the pursuit of higher pay or better opportunities.
