American workers are losing confidence in the job market. A new New York Federal Reserve consumer survey shows only 44.9% of Americans believe they could find a new job within three months if they lost their current one. That’s the lowest reading since 2013, marking a dramatic reversal from the optimism seen during the post-pandemic hiring boom.
The findings reflect a labor market in transition: job openings are shrinking, temporary help demand is down, and layoffs are ticking higher. Combined, these trends paint a picture of a labor market cooling to stall speed—and consumers are noticing.
The Numbers Behind the Sentiment
- 44.9% job-finding confidence: Lowest since June 2013.
- Employment Trends Index (ETI): At its weakest point since early 2021.
- Temporary help employment: Declined for the 11th straight month, a common early-warning sign of recession.
- Unemployment expectations: More consumers believe joblessness will rise in the next 12 months.
This data is not just about numbers—it highlights the psychological shift in how Americans view their economic future.
Confidence Through Opportunity
With job confidence at its lowest in years, employers can play a critical role in restoring stability and growth. By posting jobs today, you connect with motivated candidates eager for security and opportunity in uncertain times. Post your job on WhatJobs and make a difference in shaping the future of work.
Post a Job Free for 30 Days →Why Confidence Is Falling
- Fewer Job Postings
With job openings falling to 7.2 million, workers see fewer opportunities on job boards and company websites. - Hiring Freezes
Many employers are holding onto staff but avoiding new hires, creating a “no hire, no fire” environment. - AI and Automation Concerns
Workers fear being replaced or sidelined by technology, even if layoffs haven’t materialized yet. - Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty
Rising costs tied to global trade policies have employers cautious about expansion.
What This Means for Workers
- Longer Job Searches: Expect longer gaps between applications and interviews.
- Less Mobility: Workers are more likely to stay put, even in unsatisfying jobs, rather than risk switching.
- Weaker Bargaining Power: Employers hold the upper hand in wage and benefit negotiations.
- Rising Anxiety: Fear of layoffs—even if not widespread—reduces consumer spending and confidence overall.
The Broader Economic Impact
Consumer confidence in the labor market isn’t just about jobs—it shapes the entire economy. When workers doubt their ability to find new work:
- They cut back on spending.
- Housing demand weakens.
- Small businesses see lower sales.
- Recession risks rise.
Economists warn that falling job-search confidence is often a leading indicator of economic downturns.
What Employers Are Seeing
- More Applicants Per Role: As jobseekers grow anxious, even lower-paying roles are receiving more applications.
- Lower Wage Pressures: Companies are no longer under pressure to offer large raises to attract talent.
- Retention by Fear: Employees are less likely to quit, boosting stability but also reducing innovation and morale.
Live Example: Tech Workers in California
Take the example of Silicon Valley tech employees. In 2021, job-hopping was rampant—engineers often received multiple offers with signing bonuses. Fast forward to 2025:
- Openings for entry- and mid-level developers have fallen by nearly 40% compared to 2022.
- Laid-off workers from major firms like Meta and Google report job searches lasting six months or longer.
- Wages for new hires are flat, with many offers coming in below 2021 peak levels.
This mirrors the survey’s findings: even highly skilled workers in booming sectors now feel less secure and less confident about finding a new job quickly.
