US Job Openings Hold at 7.2 Million, Signaling Gradual Labor Market Cooling
The US labor market showed fresh signs of cooling in July, with job openings little changed at 7.2 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
While not a sharp drop, the figure extends a broader trend of declining demand for labor since the 2022 peak. The data comes as policymakers, markets, and businesses weigh the resilience of the US economy against the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September.
Labor Market Details: Hiring Flat, Sectors Show Uneven Performance
The JOLTS report showed that job openings were little changed at 7.2 million in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This level marks a continuation of the gradual cooling trend seen since early 2024.
- Hires held steady at 5.3 million.
- Total separations remained unchanged at 5.3 million.
- Within separations, quits were unchanged at 3.2 million, suggesting fewer workers feel confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily.
- Layoffs and discharges stayed low at 1.8 million, reflecting stability on the employer side despite weaker demand for new hires.
A closer industry breakdown shows uneven performance across sectors. The steepest declines were in:
- Health care and social assistance (−181,000), a sector that had previously been a driver of job growth.
- Arts, entertainment, and recreation (−62,000).
- Mining and logging (−13,000).
On the other hand, construction, wholesale trade, and federal government job postings posted modest gains — though not nearly enough to offset the broader slowdown in labor demand.
Market Reaction: Dollar Slides, Traders Price in Rate Cut
Financial markets were quick to respond. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.2% to 98.10 following the release, with the greenback particularly weak against the Australian Dollar (-0.39%). Treasury yields dipped as well, reflecting increased expectations of monetary easing.
Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch. With payroll growth already disappointing in recent months, traders see the JOLTS data as further evidence that the Fed may need to act sooner rather than later.
A Cooling Trend Since 2022
Job openings have been steadily trending lower since peaking at 12 million in March 2022. That decline reflects both reduced labor demand from employers and a shift in worker behavior, with fewer quits suggesting less optimism about future opportunities.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that labor force growth may continue to weaken, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly recently stressed that policymakers cannot wait for “perfect certainty” before adjusting rates.
The trend also fits with broader signals of a slowing economy. Revisions to earlier payrolls data in recent months showed that job creation had been overstated, reinforcing the idea that the labor market is losing steam more quickly than previously thought.
Technical View: EUR/USD Outlook
Analysts see 1.1670 as the key pivot level for EUR/USD following the JOLTS release. Resistance is expected in the 1.1720–1.1900 zone, while support is eyed between 1.1510–1.1200.
With dollar weakness likely to continue if labor data disappoints further, traders are positioning for possible upside in the euro — though much depends on Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report, widely seen as the next decisive data point.
What This Means for Employers and Jobseekers
For jobseekers, the slowdown in openings presents fewer opportunities compared to the post-pandemic peak. The fall in quits suggests that many workers are staying put, unwilling to risk a move in an uncertain environment.
For employers, however, the cooling labor market could ease the hiring crunch that defined much of 2022 and 2023. With competition for workers less intense, companies may find it easier to fill open roles without raising wages aggressively.
Still, the decline in health care openings highlights structural challenges sectors facing long-term labor shortages may continue to struggle even in a cooling market.
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Post a Job Now →Broader Outlook: All Eyes on August Jobs Report
This JOLTS release sets the stage for the August non-farm payrolls report, due Friday. Analysts are forecasting modest gains of around 80,000 jobs, far below the triple-digit monthly increases seen earlier this year.
If payroll growth falls short again, markets may fully price in not just one but multiple Fed cuts before year-end. That would have major implications for interest rates, borrowing costs, and corporate planning heading into 2026.
For now, the message is clear: the once red-hot US labor market is losing steam, and policymakers are preparing to act.
