New data shows a sharp 28 percent rise in the amount of US workers looking for a new job.
The data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data shows a massive shift from 2023.
Its July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey reveals significant changes in job-seeking behavior, job satisfaction, and employment expectations compared to the previous year.
Sharp Increase in Job Seekers
A notable trend in the July 2024 survey is the sharp rise in the proportion of job seekers. This increase marks a significant shift from the previous year, indicating a growing dissatisfaction in the current job market. There has been a decline in satisfaction with wage compensation, non-wage benefits, and promotion opportunities among respondents.
Decline in Job Satisfaction
The survey shows a deterioration in satisfaction levels across various aspects of current employment. Compared to July 2023:
- Wage compensation satisfaction dropped from 59.9% to 56.7%.
- Non-wage benefits satisfaction decreased from 64.9% to 56.3%.
- Promotion opportunities satisfaction fell from 53.5% to 44.2%.
These declines were particularly pronounced among women, respondents without a college degree, and those with an annual household income below $60,000.
Employment Stability and Transitions
Decrease in Employment Stability
The survey also highlights a decrease in employment stability. Only 88% of respondents who were employed four months ago are still with the same employer. This is the lowest rate since the survey began, down from 91.4% in July 2023. The rate of moving to a different employer has risen to 7.1%, up from 5.3% a year ago, with the increase primarily driven by women.
Increase in Job Search Activity
Job search activity has also intensified. The proportion of people who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks surged to 28.4%—the highest level since March 2014—from 19.4% in July 2023. The increase in job searching was most notable among respondents over the age of 45, those without a college degree, and those with annual household incomes below $60,000.
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Expectations for Future Employment
Rising Unemployment Concerns
Looking ahead, respondents expressed increased fears over becoming unemployed. The average expected likelihood of becoming jobless within the next four months rose to 4.4%, up from 3.9% in July 2023. This marks the highest level of unemployment expectations since the survey’s inception in July 2014.
Expected Job Offers and Wage Trends
Despite the fears over unemployment, the survey shows an increase in the expected likelihood of receiving job offers. The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months increased to 22.2%, up from 18.7% a year ago. The expected prospect of receiving multiple offers rose also to 25.4%, compared to 20.6% in July 2023.
However, there is a downward trend in the average expected salary for these job offers. The average expected annual salary for job offers in the next four months declined to $65,272 from $67,416 in July 2023. This decline was observed across various age and education groups, although expected salaries remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Increasing Reservation Wage
The survey also reported an increase in the average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents are willing to accept for a new job. This figure rose to $81,147 from $78,645 in July 2023, though it has slightly decreased from a series high of $81,822 in March 2024.
Retirement Expectations
In terms of retirement, the average expected likelihood of working beyond age 62 increased to 48.3%, up from 47.7% in July 2023. Similarly, the likelihood of working beyond age 67 increased to 34.2%, a slight reversal of the declining trend observed since the onset of the pandemic.
About the SCE Labor Market Survey
The SCE Labor Market Survey, conducted as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) since March 2014, provides valuable insights into consumers’ labor market experiences and expectations. Approximately 1,000 SCE panelists are surveyed every four months. The survey collects data on job transitions, job search efforts, job satisfaction, expected job offers, wages, and retirement plans. The detailed results offer a comprehensive view of the current labor market dynamics and future expectations.
For a more detailed analysis of the July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey, click here.
